Author: Faith Yakubu

A recent analysis of Ether options’ open interest for the end of April expiry suggests a prevailing bullish sentiment in the market, with an underlying bias toward upward movement, according to industry experts.

The largest cohort of ether options open interest, set to expire at the end of April, demonstrates a significant tilt toward bullish positions, with approximately $3.3 billion of notional ether options slated to expire, as per Deribit data. Around two-thirds of this total have been placed on calls, representing bullish bets on price movement.

Wintermute OTC Trader, Jake Ostrovskis, highlighted that call strikes are concentrated between $3,700 to $4,000, indicating an inclination toward upside movement and an overall bullish sentiment in the market.

Moreover, Ostrovskis pointed out that the current open interest skew favors call trading at a premium to puts, coupled with a notable increase in implied volatility over the weekend. This suggests a stronger directional bias and reduced dependence on writing options to finance premiums.

Bullish Put-Call Ratio

Deribit data reveals that the ether put-call ratio for the end of April expiry stands at 0.45, slightly more bullish compared to bitcoin options, which have a put-call ratio of 0.48. Ostrovskis attributes this trend to traders identifying relative value in ether, especially considering its underperformance compared to Bitcoin in 2024.

A put-call options ratio below one signifies that call volume exceeds put volume, indicating bullish sentiment in the market. This trend is further underscored by Monday’s ether put-call ratio on Deribit for all expiries, which has fallen to 0.4, reaching a low not seen since late February, according to The Block’s Data Dashboard.

Despite the bullish outlook, Ostrovskis cautions against perceived negative impacts from regulatory changes, such as the ongoing scrutiny from the SEC regarding Ether’s classification as a security. Additionally, skepticism persists regarding the likelihood of an ETF approval by June 30th, 2024, with market sentiment indicating only a 17% probability. Even positive developments, such as the SEC soliciting comments on spot ether ETFs, have not been fully embraced by the market.

Ether Price Movement

Ether has observed a notable 6.8% increase in the past 24 hours, trading at $3,645 at 11:14 a.m. ET, according to The Block’s Price Page. This surge in price further reinforces the bullish sentiment prevalent in the options market for the end of April expiry.

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In recent days, the Solana network has encountered congestion issues attributed to a surge in spam transactions, prompting developers to spring into action with various solutions.

Solana developers are actively addressing the congestion dilemma as users grapple with delays and dropped transactions, particularly noticeable on the Phantom wallet app and other platforms. The root cause of this congestion lies in the influx of spam transactions, aggravated by a spike in memecoin-related activities, which strain the network’s block space and impede regular user access.

In the first quarter of 2024, we witnessed a notable uptick in memecoin activity on the Solana blockchain, reflecting the growing interest among new and retail users lured by the network’s cost-effective transaction fees. However, the surge in spam transactions has become a bottleneck for Solana’s operation.

Matt Sorg of the Solana Foundation likened Solana’s architecture to that of the internet, highlighting its decentralized transaction processing system. Unlike traditional setups with mempools, Solana dispatches transactions directly to block leaders, potentially leading to transaction drops under a heavy spam load.

In response, the Solana development team is actively devising solutions, including software patches. Anatoly Yakovenko, co-founder of Solana, anticipates improvements in the coming week as bug fixes roll out.

Anza, the developer of Solana’s Agave validator client, also addresses specific issues within its QUIC implementation to enhance performance under high request volumes.

The upcoming 1.18 update, slated for April, aims to make transaction scheduling more deterministic to streamline processing and alleviate bottlenecks. Additionally, implementing priority fees across Solana applications will mitigate delays and enhance user experience, as highlighted in a March blog post from Solana Labs.

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Ether’s price surge today indicates a renewed focus on the Ethereum ecosystem, with multiple factors contributing to its upward trajectory.

Several key elements propel the recent surge in Ether’s price. Notably, heightened whale activity and a growing interest from institutional investors in Bitcoin have injected bullish sentiment into the wider crypto market, pushing Ether’s price up by over 5% on April 8. With Ether trading above $3,600, attention seems to be shifting towards the altcoin, which has seen a remarkable 96.2% increase in its price over the past year.

Investor Shift Towards Ether Market

Ether’s current upward momentum against the U.S. dollar mirrors its robust gains against Bitcoin. The ETH/BTC pair recorded a notable 1.5% increase on April 8, surpassing the crucial 0.05 BTC level. This suggests a potential capital rotation in the short term, with investors diverting their attention towards Ether.

Furthermore, Ether’s performance against other cryptocurrencies has notably improved in the last 24 hours, as evidenced by a nearly 2% rise in the Ethereum Dominance Index (ETH.D) from its recent low on April 7. This indicates a growing influx of capital into the Ether market, strengthening its value.

Resurgence of Ethereum Whales

The recent surge in Ether’s price coincides with a period of accumulation among its wealthiest investors, commonly referred to as whales. Data from Glassnode reveals a consistent daily increase in Ether reserves among entities holding between 1,000 and 10,000 ETH since March 17. Historically, such accumulation patterns have often preceded significant price rallies, similar to the one Ether is experiencing presently.

Growing Institutional Interest and Anticipation for Spot ETH ETF

Interest from institutional traders in Ether has been on the rise since November 5, 2023, when the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) acknowledged Grayscale Investment’s application to convert its Ethereum trust into an ETF. Subsequently, on November 9, BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, filed for a spot Ether ETF, propelling Ether’s price to a six-month high at the time.

As of April 8, a total of seven spot Ether ETFs have been filed and are awaiting approval from the SEC. Moreover, the SEC’s recent call for comments on Fidelity, Grayscale, and Bitwise spot Ether ETFs on April 3 underscores the growing anticipation in the market.

Institutional investors have poured $13.8 billion into crypto investment products year-to-date in 2024, surpassing the record $10.6 billion inflow for the entire year of 2021. Despite recent outflows from institutional investors, Ether investment products have seen $52 million in inflows in 2024, bringing the total assets under management to $14.1 billion.

While the current market conditions appear favorable, macroeconomic factors such as potential rate hikes and regulatory scrutiny in the U.S. could exert slight pressure on Ether’s price. However, the approval of a spot Ether ETF, positive regulatory developments, and a strong U.S. economy could serve as catalysts for further price growth.

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Bitcoin ETFs continue to attract investor interest, with Farside data showing a $203.0 million net inflow on April 5th, marking the fourth consecutive day of positive flows. This trend signals increasing confidence and interest in the digital asset space.

Among the ETF providers, BlackRock’s IBIT stands out, recording a significant net inflow of $308.8 million, bringing its cumulative total net inflow close to $15 billion at $14,769.1 billion. This marks the largest net inflow day for IBIT since March 27th, highlighting the growing prominence of the fund in the market.

Fidelity’s FBTC also saw healthy inflows, with a $83.0 million net influx, contributing to its total net inflow reaching $7,957.6 billion. In contrast, Grayscale’s GBTC experienced significant outflows of $198.9 million, the largest since April 1st, bringing its total outflow to $15,505.3 billion, according to Farside.

Data from Heyappolo indicates that GBTC currently holds 323,000 Bitcoin, while IBIT and FBTC have accumulated 264,000 Bitcoin and 151,000 Bitcoin, respectively. Interestingly, the nine new BTC ETFs, excluding GBTC, have collectively amassed 519,000 Bitcoin.

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Digital asset investment products saw $646 million in inflows last week, reflecting continued positive sentiment in the crypto market despite Bitcoin’s sideways movement over the past month.

Although inflows into crypto funds have slowed compared to the surge seen after the introduction of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S., the overall trend remains upbeat. Most days witness inflows into popular ETFs, while outflows from Grayscale’s GBTC have notably decreased.

James Butterfill, head of research at Coinshares, noted that year-to-date inflows have reached a record $13.8 billion, surpassing last year’s $10.6 billion. However, there are signs of moderation in ETF investor appetite, with weekly flows not reaching early March levels. Weekly volumes also declined from $43 billion to $17.4 billion last week.

The U.S. continued to lead in terms of regional inflows with $648 million, followed by Brazil, Germany, and Hong Kong. Switzerland and Canada experienced outflows of $27 million and $7.3 million, respectively.

Bitcoin saw inflows of $663 million, while short-bitcoin investment products faced outflows for the third consecutive week, suggesting bearish investor capitulation. Ethereum recorded its fourth week of outflows, totaling $22.5 million, amidst lowered expectations for the approval of an ETH ETF in May.

Despite Ethereum’s outflows, other altcoins like Litecoin, Solana, and Filecoin continued to attract inflows.

With the Bitcoin halving looming just 11 days away, sentiment in the crypto market remains in ‘Extreme Greed’ territory. While analysts anticipate post-halving volatility, the consensus is optimistic, expecting a trend toward higher prices. Historical data suggests that the crypto market typically experiences a bullish phase lasting six to eighteen months after the halving event.

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