Author: Kristen Moran

Cryptocurrency exchange OKX has informed its clients that it will no longer offer services in India. Customers are required to close their positions by the end of April, after which they can only withdraw their funds. The exchange cited regulatory considerations in the country as the reason for this decision.

In a notice, OKX informed its Indian clients that they must close all margin positions, as well as positions in perpetual, futures, and options, and withdraw all funds by April 30. The notice stated that after this date, accounts will be restricted to withdrawals only.

India brought digital asset service providers under its anti-money laundering framework in March 2023. Exchanges intending to operate in the country are required to register with the Financial Intelligence Unit India (FIU IND) and adhere to regulatory guidelines. However, as of the end of 2023, OKX had not completed this registration process.

The Indian government has been cracking down on exchanges operating illegally within its borders. In December, the FIU IND issued notices to nine exchanges deemed to be operating illegally, including Binance, Kraken, and MEXC Global. Notably, OKX should have been included in this list.

According to sources familiar with the matter, several of the exchanges that received notices have engaged in discussions with Indian authorities to resolve the situation.

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In a move that signals increasing mainstream acceptance, Coinbase Derivatives is set to introduce futures trading for three prominent cryptocurrencies: Dogecoin, Litecoin, and Bitcoin Cash, beginning April 1.

Using self-certification with the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), Coinbase aims to swiftly list these futures contracts while ensuring compliance with regulatory standards. These cryptocurrencies, stemming from Bitcoin, which the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) acknowledges as a commodity, have been chosen for futures trading, leveraging their established status within the crypto market.

Dogecoin, initially conceived as a lighthearted meme, is now receiving serious attention as it joins the roster of tradable assets. Coinbase’s announcement to launch monthly cash-settled futures contracts for Dogecoin, Litecoin, and Bitcoin Cash was communicated to CFTC Secretary Christopher Kirkpatrick in separate letters dated March 7. The letters outlined key details such as contract sizes, settlement methods, and the utilization of a benchmark rate by Market Vector.

Coinbase’s decision to utilize the self-certification route under CFTC Regulation 40.2(a) underscores its commitment to regulatory compliance. This approach allows for the introduction of new offerings without direct CFTC approval, provided the products adhere to the Commodity Exchange Act and CFTC regulations.

The regulatory classification of these cryptocurrencies as commodities, rather than securities, raises intriguing questions within the industry. Bloomberg Intelligence ETF research analyst James Seyffart noted the significance of this development, particularly in distinguishing these assets as “commodities futures” rather than “securities futures.” Given their lineage from Bitcoin, arguing for their classification as securities would pose challenges, especially following the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs. Coinbase’s strategic selection of these cryptocurrencies for futures trading reflects a nuanced understanding of regulatory dynamics and market trends.

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Discussions among lawmakers have stagnated for months as the upcoming election season draws near, rendering the passage of bills in Washington nearly impossible.

Despite this, lawmakers involved in drafting stablecoin bills express optimism about legislative progress in both the Senate and the House. However, a stablecoin bill, viewed as relatively achievable compared to other crypto-related bills, has encountered obstacles, with time running out to bring it to a vote.

A stablecoin bill spearheaded by House Financial Services Committee Chair Patrick McHenry, R-N.C., made headway out of the committee over the summer. However, it faced bipartisan contention, with Congressional Republicans attributing opposition to the White House. Notably, top Democrat Maxine Waters of California criticized the bill as “deeply problematic,” citing a provision allowing state regulators to approve stablecoin issuances without Federal Reserve input.

Although Waters and McHenry have increased their interactions since then, discord persists regarding the primary regulator for stablecoin issuers.

McHenry remarked on Wednesday at Coinbase’s Update the System Summit, indicating a “workable frame” for progress. He emphasized the need for a legislative vehicle and a deadline to address unresolved issues effectively.

Cody Carbone, vice president of policy for the Chamber of Digital Commerce, noted ongoing talks between McHenry and Waters’ teams but highlighted minimal progress on substantive issues.

Regarding the bill’s prospects in the House, Carbone suggested a 50% chance of passage but a mere 5% likelihood of enactment into law due to various complexities.

Uncertainty also looms in the Senate, where Sens. Kirsten Gillibrand, D-N.Y., and Cynthia Lummis, R-Wyo., aim to unveil a stablecoin bill focusing on regulatory clarity and consumer protection. However, uncertainties surround the bill’s details and completion strategy, with discussions facing setbacks.

Lummis expressed optimism about bipartisan efforts, citing Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer’s openness to consider such legislation. She anticipates progress on stablecoins in 2024.

Despite challenges, stakeholders are encouraged by legislative efforts in both chambers, expressing optimism about achieving consensus before the year concludes.

However, hurdles remain, with the Senate Banking Committee prioritizing other issues, potentially impeding progress on stablecoin legislation. Efforts to package bills, such as a potential compromise between stablecoin and marijuana banking bills, offer glimmers of hope, but challenges persist in navigating House gridlock.

Ultimately, lawmakers aim to position themselves for the next Congress, emphasizing the importance of advancing stablecoin legislation despite potential delays beyond the year’s end.

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Robinhood Markets, Inc. (NASDAQ:HOOD), a California-based financial services company, offers a range of investor services including cryptocurrency trading, dividend reinvestment, and fractional share investment. The platform allows real-time trading in stocks, crypto, and options, earning transactional fees from routing orders to market makers upon execution.

With its close association with the cryptocurrency market, Robinhood shares have surged 35% since the year began, in tandem with Bitcoin’s breakout to record highs. Despite this, HOOD still trades over 11% below its 52-week high.

In its Q4 results released in February, Robinhood posted a profit of $30 million, marking its second profitable quarter. Revenue for the period reached $471 million, up 24% from the previous year. Interest revenue experienced a notable 41% increase, reaching $236 million, whereas transaction-based revenue amounted to $200 million, marking an 8% year-over-year rise. Notably, cryptocurrency revenue contributed $43 million to the latter, offsetting a slight decline in options revenue.

However, for the full year, HOOD reported a net loss of $487 million, despite a 37% YoY revenue increase to $1.87 billion. Management highlighted its expanding global presence in crypto services during the quarterly earnings call, noting brokerage services in the U.K. and crypto offerings in the EU.

More recently, Robinhood reported a 10% sequential increase in crypto trading volumes to $6.5 billion in February.

Bernstein commenced coverage of Robinhood with an “Outperform” rating and set a price target of $30. The analysts anticipate significant institutional adoption of Bitcoin to drive HOOD’s revenues substantially higher, projecting a nine-fold increase by 2025, with the total crypto market cap reaching $7.5 trillion.

This new price target from Bernstein, the highest on Wall Street, implies a potential upside of 74.4% from current levels.

However, other analysts hold varying views on Robinhood, with a consensus “Hold” rating among 15 analysts covering the stock. While four analysts rate it as a “Strong Buy,” eight suggest “Hold,” one recommends a “Moderate Sell,” and two advocate a “Strong Sell.” The mean price target from this group stands at $14.61, indicating a potential downside of 15.5%.

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Ben Armstrong, a cryptocurrency analyst, anticipates a substantial bull run for Cardano’s ADA. Armstrong’s prediction is grounded in the growing public attention toward ongoing developments within the Cardano ecosystem. He referenced Ali Martinez’s ADA forecast, suggesting a potential rally to $5 following a consolidation period.

Armstrong underscores the increasing public awareness surrounding activities on the Cardano blockchain. While he couldn’t determine if the surge in awareness is orchestrated by the Cardano team, he remains confident that it will positively impact ADA’s price. Drawing from historical data, Armstrong notes that significant ADA movements often follow such developments.

The launch of a fiat-backed stablecoin (USDM) on Cardano is highlighted by Armstrong as a noteworthy development contributing to Cardano’s momentum. He describes this stablecoin as a groundbreaking addition to the Cardano network, potentially addressing challenges faced by the decentralized finance (DeFi) ecosystem on Cardano.

Armstrong views the USDM launch as a significant milestone, expected to enhance security, scalability, and sustainability for decentralized applications (DApps) on the Cardano network.

Further analyzing the ecosystem, Armstrong points to Charles Hoskinson, Cardano’s CEO, addressing concerns regarding the Hydra project. Hoskinson’s reassurance to the Cardano community regarding the progress of the Hydra project is noted by Armstrong as another factor contributing to Cardano’s growing prominence.

Armstrong also references Ali Martinez’s price analysis, which predicts ADA consolidating between $0.55 and $0.80 soon, followed by a rally to $1.70 before potentially reaching $5. At the time of writing, ADA was trading at $0.614, having retreated from a recent high of $0.81.

In summary, Armstrong’s analysis suggests that ADA could experience a significant price surge to $5 fueled by the rising public notoriety surrounding Cardano’s ongoing developments.

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