Author: Stephanie Bedard-Chateauneuf

Bitcoin’s forthcoming ‘halving’ is on the horizon, prompting a need-to-know exploration. Here’s a breakdown of what awaits:

What is Bitcoin Halving and Why Is it Significant?

Bitcoin “halving,” occurring approximately every four years, directly affects bitcoin production. Miners, utilizing specialized computers to solve complex mathematical puzzles, receive a fixed number of bitcoins as a reward upon completion.

As the name suggests, halving cuts this fixed income in half, thereby reducing the influx of new bitcoins into the market. Consequently, the supply of available coins grows more gradually, aligning with bitcoin’s fundamental characteristic of limited supply. With only 21 million bitcoins ever to exist and the majority already mined, scarcity becomes a defining feature.

The reduction in supply can potentially drive up bitcoin prices, assuming demand remains steady or increases relative to supply. However, predicting future price movements remains uncertain, as past performance does not guarantee future results.

How Frequently Does Halving Occur?

According to Bitcoin’s code, halving takes place after the creation of every 210,000 “blocks” during the mining process, roughly translating to a four-year interval. The next halving is anticipated to unfold imminently.

Will Halving Impact Bitcoin’s Price?

The impact on bitcoin’s price remains speculative. Historically, following previous halvings, bitcoin’s price experienced mixed short-term reactions, eventually surging significantly one year later. Nonetheless, market conditions beyond halving contribute to these fluctuations.

The current halving arrives on the heels of a bullish year for bitcoin, with prices doubling compared to the previous year. Factors such as the introduction of spot bitcoin ETFs and persistent demand may further influence bitcoin’s trajectory.

What About Miners?

Miners face the challenge of adapting to reduced rewards while managing operational costs. Efficiently prepared miners may weather the transition better, but struggling firms might encounter difficulties.

Consolidation within the mining industry is probable, a trend exacerbated by previous market downturns. Larger miners may expand operations, leveraging technological advancements for efficiency gains.

What About the Environment?

Bitcoin mining’s environmental impact stems largely from energy consumption. While recent trends indicate a shift towards cleaner energy sources, concerns persist regarding reliance on pollutive energy.

The looming halving might incentivize miners to seek cheaper, albeit less environmentally friendly, energy sources. Additionally, some firms may explore low-cost energy regions, potentially deploying inefficient mining rigs.

In essence, Bitcoin’s upcoming halving carries implications for its economy, environment, and industry landscape, yet its exact outcomes remain uncertain amidst the dynamic cryptoverse.

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Bitcoin maintains its position above the significant threshold of $60,000, marking a resurgence amid recent dips that saw it hit six-week lows. Short-covering activity has been notably active, contributing to this upward trend.

Despite recent corrections, Bitcoin continues to assert its dominance within the cryptocurrency market, attracting investors who are turning away from riskier currencies. Additionally, a slowdown in US 10-year treasury yields has provided further support and bolstered sentiment towards cryptocurrencies.

Today, Bitcoin saw a notable rally of 2.9% on Bitstamp, reaching $63,046 from a session low of $60,830. This recovery comes after a 4% decline on Wednesday, the second drop in three days, when it dipped to $59,672 amidst turbulence in Wall Street markets.

The collective market value of cryptocurrencies surged by $20 billion today, surpassing $2.375 trillion, buoyed by gains in Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Bitcoin’s dominance has strengthened as other AI-linked cryptocurrencies experienced declines in recent weeks. Its market share has risen to 55%, marking an increase of 1.35% last week and 2.5% in March, largely due to an influx of new investments.

Anticipation surrounding Bitcoin’s upcoming halving event has driven Google searches to record highs, surpassing the interest levels seen during the 2020 halving.

Meanwhile, US 10-year treasury yields have receded from their recent five-month highs, falling to 4.696%. This decline has provided support for non-yielding assets like Bitcoin.

As the market awaits further guidance on US interest rates, Crypto.com‘s CEO anticipates a wave of selling leading up to the halving event. However, in the long run, this event is expected to have a positive impact and add value to the cryptocurrency market.

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Recent data from analytics firm Santiment indicates a notable shift in sentiment within the crypto community, signaling a growing bearish inclination.

The sentiment within the crypto community regarding the trajectory of Bitcoin’s price appears to be turning bearish, according to metrics derived from social media activity. This trend, historically observed, often coincides with market bottoms.

As American poet and novelist Charles Bukowski famously remarked, “The masses are always wrong. Wisdom is doing everything the crowd does not do.” This adage holds true in the realm of cryptocurrency, where a burgeoning bearish sentiment towards Bitcoin (BTC) suggests that the current downtrend may be nearing its end.

Santiment, a blockchain analytics platform, noted in a recent market insights report that prices tend to move inversely to the expectations of the majority of traders. According to their analysis, the market could potentially bottom out either just before or shortly after the upcoming halving, anticipated within the next two days.

Santiment’s Social Trends indicator, which monitors discussions across platforms like Telegram, Reddit, and 4Chan, has revealed a decline in mentions related to “bull market” or “bull cycle” since late March. Conversely, there has been a steady increase in references to “bear market” or “bear cycle.”

The decline in mentions of phrases like “buy the dip” indicates a waning sense of optimism, known in crypto circles as “hopium,” among retail investors. Historically, such a decline has often signaled the conclusion of downtrends.

Bitcoin has faced various pressures this month, including diminishing prospects of Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts, escalating geopolitical tensions, and U.S. tax payment deadlines. These factors have contributed to a 14% decline in its price, with the leading cryptocurrency briefly dropping below $60,000 before rebounding to around $61,200 at the time of writing.

With Bitcoin’s blockchain set to undergo its fourth mining reward halving, reducing the per-block BTC emission by 50% to 3.125 BTC, concerns about a further price decline have been raised by some analysts, including those at JPMorgan. However, the prevailing consensus remains bullish over the long term.

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The cryptocurrency market encountered challenges this week, particularly impacting crypto Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs). The theme of cryptocurrency investment witnessed an overall decline of 5.99%, reflecting setbacks in major cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin retreated by 2.25%, slipping below the $70,000 mark, while Ethereum faced an even steeper decline, plummeting by 6.5%.

Challenges with SEC and Spot ETFs

The recent setback stemmed from actions by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The regulatory body initiated a three-week comment period regarding proposals for spot Ether ETFs, effectively postponing any possibility of approval until at least May. This delay subdued investor optimism, especially among those expecting prompt approvals for spot ETFs representing direct investments in cryptocurrencies, as opposed to derivatives.

Impact on Crypto ETF Performance

Particular crypto ETFs bore the brunt of these developments. The Ether Tracker Euro ETC (ETHEREUM XBTE) and the 21Shares Ethereum Staking ETP (AETH) experienced declines of 7.96% and 7.63%, respectively. These setbacks highlight the heightened sensitivity of crypto ETFs to regulatory decisions and market sentiment as investors navigate the uncertain landscape of cryptocurrency regulations and their implications for spot ETFs.

The SEC’s decision to postpone approvals for spot ETFs has cast a shadow over the future of Ether ETFs, temporarily halting the momentum that had been building in anticipation of broader institutional acceptance. While these ETFs offer a regulated avenue for investors to gain exposure to cryptocurrencies, the path forward appears to be mired in regulatory uncertainty, impacting both investor sentiment and ETF performance.

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According to a survey by Deutsche Bank released on Monday, consumers are showing slightly diminished skepticism towards bitcoin, though nearly one-third of respondents still foresee a significant drop in its price by the conclusion of 2024.

Despite substantial investments poured into bitcoin with hopes of capitalizing on price surges, leading regulators have asserted its lack of intrinsic value and associated risks.

Deutsche Bank’s survey encompassed over 3,600 participants, with 52% expressing the belief that cryptocurrencies will emerge as an “important asset class and payment method” in the future. This marks a shift from less than 40% in September 2023.

One-third of respondents in the United States anticipate bitcoin’s value to dip below $20,000 by the end of 2024. Notably, this demographic is marginally diminishing, having comprised 35% in February and 36% in January.

The segment of individuals regarding cryptocurrencies as a “temporary trend destined to fade away” dwindled to less than 1%.

However, merely 10% of those surveyed expect bitcoin to surpass $75,000 by year-end.

Context

Bitcoin ascended to a three-week peak on Monday, having achieved an all-time high of $73,803.25 in March after rebounding from a significant downturn in 2022.

Analysts attribute the recent resurgence to anticipation surrounding spot bitcoin ETFs and expectations of impending interest rate reductions.

What’s Ahead

Some analysts interpret bitcoin’s recent rebound beyond $70,000 as a sign of investors disregarding cautionary advice.

Deutsche Bank analysts anticipate support for bitcoin’s price from forthcoming events such as the “bitcoin halving,” regulatory measures, central bank rate cuts, and the potential approval of spot ethereum ETFs by the SEC.

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