As Bitcoin’s price stabilizes near its previous all-time highs, many are questioning whether the current bull run has come to an end. However, historical data indicates otherwise. The market is presently testing support at the “fair value band” for the second time since the recent halving event. This pattern is reminiscent of the 2016 and 2020 cycles, during which Bitcoin similarly moved sideways before experiencing a significant breakout. With Bitcoin priced at $55,000 just 124 days post-halving, it is premature to declare the bull run finished. Historically, substantial price surges have followed around 160 days post-halving.

Whale Accumulation and Liquidity Signal Strength

Institutional investors, particularly Bitcoin whales, are demonstrating strong confidence in the market. Wallets holding between 100 to 1,000 Bitcoin have accumulated an additional 100,000 Bitcoin in just the past six weeks. This increased accumulation, occurring as Bitcoin consolidates at its fair value, suggests that large investors are positioning themselves for a forthcoming upswing. Additionally, rising global liquidity often precedes major Bitcoin price movements. This pattern, observed in past bull runs, indicates that a significant upward move could be on the horizon.

Institutional Adoption and Dollar Weakness

Institutional adoption of Bitcoin is gaining momentum, with approximately 60% of the largest U.S. hedge funds now holding Bitcoin exposure. This growing acceptance further establishes Bitcoin’s legitimacy in traditional finance. Companies like MicroStrategy, which shifted its strategy to holding Bitcoin as treasury, have seen substantial growth since 2021. Furthermore, the strength of the U.S. dollar plays a crucial role in Bitcoin’s price dynamics. Historically, Bitcoin’s price has surged when the dollar weakens. Current trends in the dollar index suggest a potential breakdown, which, combined with increasing institutional and retail adoption, implies that Bitcoin’s bull market remains robust and is likely to accelerate in the coming months.

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State Street’s New Digital Asset Strategy

State Street, a leading global custody bank managing $44.3 trillion in assets, has selected Taurus, a specialist in cryptocurrency custody and tokenization, to advance its digital asset services. The partnership comes as the bank prepares to navigate U.S. regulatory challenges, focusing initially on tokenization rather than direct crypto custody.

Initial Focus on Tokenization

The initial phase will concentrate on creating tokenized versions of traditional assets, with the first client expected to be announced shortly after the service goes live. Tokenization allows for benefits such as 24/7 trading and optimized collateral management and aims to bridge the gap in digital asset services while awaiting a more favorable regulatory environment.

Regulatory Challenges and Advocacy

State Street has expressed concerns about the SEC’s proposed Staff Accounting Bulletin 121 (SAB 121), which imposes significant capital requirements on banks holding customer crypto assets. The bank has advocated for changes to SAB 121 to reduce these burdens. Donna Milrod, State Street’s chief product officer and head of Digital Asset Solutions, emphasized that while the focus is currently on tokenization, the goal is to eventually offer digital custody services as well.

Taurus’s Role and Industry Impact

Taurus, based in Switzerland, will support State Street in this endeavor. Co-founder and managing partner Lamine Brahimi highlighted the potential positive impact of this partnership on the U.S. financial markets, which have lagged behind European markets due to current regulatory constraints.

Previous Engagements and Future Prospects

State Street has a history of engagement with blockchain technology, previously collaborating with crypto custody firm Copper. However, Copper has since shifted its focus to its ClearLoop settlement system, underscoring the evolving landscape of digital asset services.

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Babylon’s Mainnet Launch Scheduled for August 22

Bitcoin staking platform Babylon, spearheaded by Stanford University professor David Tse, is set to begin the phased launch of its mainnet this week. The project aims to introduce staking functionality to Bitcoin, a feature traditionally absent from the largest cryptocurrency network. The initial phase of the launch will commence on August 22, allowing BTC holders to lock their tokens on the network.

Funding and Support

Babylon secured $70 million in funding from Paradigm earlier this year, underscoring strong investor confidence. The project is backed by over 200 “finality providers,” including notable entities such as Allnodes, Figment, and Galaxy Digital. These providers will approve transactions and ensure the smooth operation of Babylon’s protocol, akin to the role of validators in proof-of-stake blockchains.

Staking Details and Security Measures

During the first phase, users can stake a total of up to 1,000 BTC ($57.9 million) on the Babylon platform. Staking, which involves locking tokens to support network operations and earn rewards, is a common practice in many blockchains but has not been available for Bitcoin until now. Babylon aims to bridge this gap and enhance Bitcoin’s utility.

Project Leadership and Vision

David Tse, known for his research in information theory and previously associated with UC Berkeley, leads Babylon. His expertise brings a promising perspective to scaling Bitcoin’s capabilities.

Market Impact and Future Prospects

Babylon’s introduction of staking could mark a significant shift in Bitcoin’s functionality, adding new dimensions to its ecosystem and potentially attracting more utility and investment in the network.

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Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market are experiencing significant losses in August, despite a rebound in global stocks and other asset classes. The largest digital asset has fallen approximately 9% this month, underperforming compared to MSCI Inc.’s world share index, which has gained nearly 1%, and a surge in gold prices to record highs. A Bloomberg global bond gauge has increased by nearly 2% over the same period.

Challenges for Bitcoin and Crypto Market

Analysts point to potential sales of Bitcoin seized by the US government as a key challenge for digital assets. The US government is estimated to hold roughly $12 billion worth of crypto, and recent blockchain data shows that $600 million of confiscated Bitcoin was moved to a Coinbase Global Inc. wallet last week, according to Arkham Intelligence. Khushboo Khullar, a venture partner at Lightning Ventures, attributes the current downward pressure on Bitcoin prices to these potential sales, though she anticipates this impact will be temporary.

Market Volatility and Speculative Sentiment

The top 100 digital assets index saw its steepest drop on August 5 since November 2022, aligning with a broader market retreat amid US growth concerns and unwinding yen carry trades. While expectations for the US economy have stabilized, leading to a near-record high in MSCI’s global share index, crypto market sentiment remains weak. Funding rates for Bitcoin perpetual futures on the Binance exchange—often used by speculators—are at their most negative since 2022, reflecting diminished enthusiasm among fast-money traders.

Political and Policy Uncertainties

Bitcoin’s peak of $73,798 in March was driven by expectations of looser US monetary policy and inflows into dedicated US exchange-traded funds (ETFs). However, interest in these ETFs has cooled in recent months. Additionally, the ongoing US presidential race, with pro-crypto Republican Donald Trump and Democratic opponent Vice President Kamala Harris, has introduced further uncertainty. Harris has yet to outline her stance on digital assets.

As of Monday afternoon in New York, Bitcoin has dipped 2% to around $58,600, with other major tokens such as Ether and Solana also experiencing declines.

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Bitwise Asset Management, a prominent cryptocurrency ETF provider, has acquired London-based digital asset issuer ETC Group. This acquisition will elevate Bitwise’s assets under management (AUM) to $4.5 billion, according to a company press release. ETC Group, known for its physically-backed Bitcoin fund, contributes approximately $1.1 billion in AUM to the deal.

Strategic Expansion and Global Reach

San Francisco-based Bitwise, which introduced a spot Bitcoin ETF in the U.S. earlier this year, manages seven ETFs with a total AUM of $2.7 billion. Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley noted that the acquisition will help the company improve its offerings for European investors and expand its global footprint. Horsley emphasized that the acquisition will enable the company to better serve European investors, provide global insights, and expand its product range.

The addition of ETC Group provides Bitwise with access to a European market where crypto-exchange traded products have been established for some time, contrasting with the U.S. market where spot Bitcoin ETFs only recently received regulatory approval in early 2024.

Industry Trends and Recent Deals

The acquisition aligns with a broader trend of consolidation in the ETF industry. Recent deals include Valkyrie Investments selling its ETF business to CoinShares and Ark Investment Management acquiring Rize ETF Limited. Specific terms of the Bitwise-ETC Group deal were not disclosed, but the acquisition will integrate ETC Group’s range of crypto-focused exchange-traded products under the Bitwise brand.

Since its launch on January 11, the Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (BITB) has seen approximately $2 billion in inflows, making it the fourth most popular among the 11 SEC-approved products this year, as reported by U.K. asset manager Farside Investors.

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